Number 3 is pretty much already here. My mom is a wee bit of a Luddite, so she's still using her Nokia from about 8 years ago because we can't find her a newer phone that is only a phone and not also a camera or a web browser or a GPS or...

I would clarify "landlines" to state only those in private sector... three of my siblings don't keep landlines, since they and their spouses have cell phones. Businesses will still use landlines for many more years to come, though some larger companies ARE beginning to switch to VoIP to save on costs of calls between cross-country offices.

As for the TV part... yup. My roomie and I don't even have a TV. The only show I watch right now is "Glee", and I catch it on Hulu the day after it airs... she watches only "The Office", and does the same.

Edited at 2010-04-16 04:05 pm (UTC)

I thought you'd like that one :D

Here's a thought for consideration. How do you define ‘obsolete’? I think all three of those things will fall to a fraction of their current usage levels, but I would reserve the term 'obsolete' for something that is virtually unused, and most of all, unsupported – as in, even someone who wants to continue using the technology can't do so, because there's no-one to fix it when it breaks down.

Countering this are a couple of things:

People are tired of change, and many are becoming more resistant.

If enough people resist a change, a small market is created to serve these people. As long as we have entrepreneurs, there will be people who will step up to meet that market.

This is why horses aren't obsolete technology. They're still useful in some circumstances, desirable in others; and accordingly farriers have not disappeared, although they're now specialists instead of someone you must have in every village.

So, getting back to your #2 and #3.

Landlines won't vanish unless and until mobile phone technology becomes more reliable and cheaper than all landlines, even in rural areas, even for the poor, even for businesses. Till then, plenty of people will continue to use them. I don't expect to see a significant tilt there for at least 20-30 years – not until today's 20somethings have reached the age where they're dominating the part of the world in which business decisions are made. (In other words, when they move from a bunch of sheeplike consumers to the position of the shepherd.)

As for #3: single-use mobile phones are becoming a specialised item, but that segment of users is digging in harder. I expect those users will eventually age out of existence, but as long as there are enough of them to form a viable market niche, there will be a product made for them to buy. As that niche ages, I would expect the product to be aimed more and more at ease of use and comfort, since adding bells and whistles will be the wrong approach.

Personally, I’m very fond of my phone that just makes phone calls. I already have a camera for taking photos, and my eyes aren’t up to browsing on a tiny screen. Then too, thre are a lot of blind phone users – they aren’t going to care what you can see on your phone.

On the other hand, I quite agree with your #1. TV programming as we know it is driven by huge numbers; and the current trends pushing it out are going to support the breakup into niches – which is what I think runs counter to the other two.

ETA: *looks at length of dissertation*
*quails*

Edited at 2010-04-16 09:58 pm (UTC)

Now that most people seem to have gotten high def TVs, they're coming out with 3D ones. People (not you, but lots of people! ;P) like seeing things on really big screens! I don't see TVs becoming obsolete anytime soon. :)

Also, I've never had a cell phone, and never plan to. I hate talking on the phone, so I'm not going to pay that much for something I'll hardly ever use.

But my TV is bigger than my computer monitor and I much more enjoy watching Dr. Horrible on DVD on my big ol' TV!

But I suppose eventually they'll make huge computer monitors so people can enjoy movies in a home theater system that doesn't technically involve a TV as we know them today?

I have a Roku box (about the size of a Whitman's Sampler box) attached to my 40 inch TV. I can get Netflix and Amazon on Demand and MLB streaming wirelessly and other content from the internet is beginning to appear on that little box. I just wish Hulu would come to Roku. I would ditch my cable.

And as for phones, I would ditch the land line but the phone number has been in the family for 75 years and every one in town knows it. I also have high speed DSL from the phone company (I get a discount for having both with CenturyTel).

I do use my cell phone for most of my calls, I text a little bit and take a few pictures with it because it's handy in some situations.


Edited at 2010-04-17 02:02 am (UTC)

I can understand why you wouldn't want your phone number out and about but my land line number dates back to when you rang up the operator and told her the number! New residents in town though need to look it up and I have an answering machine to screen calls.

Few people know my cell phone number though.